Is the Free and Open Indo-Pacific Liberal?

This paper is developed from a research proposal originally submitted for the “Research Methods for Political Science and International Relations I” course in Spring 2025. In the initial version, my selection of donor countries was overly conservative, and data collection was conducted manually by downloading individual CSV files from OECD and IMF databases—a labor-intensive process necessitated by my lack of programming knowledge at the time.

In this updated version, I have clarified the predictors and expanded the donor country pool to include all 32 OECD/DAC member states, utilizing APIs for more efficient data processing. While the core findings remain consistent, the results confirm that Japan’s Free and Open Indo-Pacific (FOIP) strategy did not lead to an increase in the volume or frequency of “liberal” ODA components. Instead, now we even know the pivot toward geostrategic objectives, evidenced by the provision of Self-Defense Forces (SDF) military equipment to partner nations such as the Philippines.

While this study may not offer strong theoretical implications for existing literature, its primary contribution lies in providing a concrete empirical case of “liberal rhetoric” and in the methodological application of the Synthetic Control Method. I would appreciate any criticisms or feedback you may have regarding this work.