GradCafe-Based Political Science PhD Admission Trends, 2020-2026

Introduction

I scraped and organized political science PhD admission data submitted to GradCafe from 2020 to 2026, then noted a few patterns that seemed meaningful from an applicant’s point of view.

• Base repository: ye-rim-oh/GradCafe

Update: as of 2026-03-04, I scraped the full 2020-2026 seasons again and updated the figures.

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Points to Keep in Mind

• GradCafe reports are self-posted by applicants, so they do not represent the full population.
• One applicant may apply to multiple schools and report multiple outcomes, so 12 reported cases do not necessarily mean 12 distinct people. It could just as easily mean 6 people reporting 2 schools each, or 3 people reporting 4 schools each.
• GRE scores, subfield information, and nationality information are especially affected by missingness and reporting bias.
• The figures in this post are current as of March 4, 2026.
• Even so, the dataset is still useful for reading broad patterns, such as when announcements cluster by school and how competitive a given year feels.

Key Summary

Summary Table

Year	Total Cases	Overall Accept Rate	American Cases	American Accept Rate	International Cases	International Accept Rate	GRE V mean	GRE Q mean	GPA Reporting Rate
2020	593	46.4%	214	48.5%	304	42.6%	161.3	159.6	31.4%
2021	576	35.3%	206	37.9%	254	29.9%	164.5	161.1	29.9%
2022	495	45.5%	205	41.1%	289	48.3%	163.0	162.8	54.7%
2023	337	46.1%	94	58.8%	184	47.4%	163.2	163.1	55.8%
2024	402	44.6%	138	42.5%	259	45.1%	163.6	162.2	51.5%
2025	505	36.5%	176	41.5%	329	33.7%	163.4	165.3	57.8%
2026	858	34.5%	366	42.5%	492	28.5%	163.9	165.8	66.7%

• The 2026 admission-season sample was the largest in the 2020-2026 period.
• The overall acceptance rate remained in the mid-30% range in each of the two most recent seasons, below the previous high of 45.9% in 2020 and 2023.
• The nationality gap in the 2026 admission season was 14.1%p (American 42.5% - International 28.5%).

What Stood Out

1) American > International

• There is year-to-year variation, but in most years the American acceptance rate is higher than the International acceptance rate.
• The exception is 2022 (International 48.8% > American 40.4%), and in 2026 the gap widened again.

2) The Timing of the Season Still Centers on Early to Mid-February

• Except for 2020, Median Final is generally concentrated in early to mid-February.
• In 2026, Median Final is 02/10, which is close to the usual pattern.

3) Interpretation of Subfields Still Needs to Be Conservative

• Even in 2026, Subfield Known % is only 26.2%, so subfield comparisons are best treated as directional rather than definitive.
• Within the reported subset, however, the CP tag appears most often.

4) The Linear Correlation Between GRE/GPA and Admission Is Very Weak

• The score-admission correlations for the combined 2020-2026 data are as follows.

Metric	Valid N	Correlation r	p-value	Interpretation
GPA	1,616	0.057	0.0214	Very weak linear correlation
GRE V	884	0.066	0.0484	Very weak linear correlation
GRE Q	881	0.117	0.0005	Very weak linear correlation
GRE AW	812	0.005	0.8952	No meaningful linear correlation

• Even where statistical significance appears, the effect size itself is small. In practice, factors such as research fit, recommendation letters, the writing sample, and school-level fit are likely to generate more meaningful variation.

From an Applicant’s Point of View

1) Announcements Mostly Cluster in Mid-February

• This is the period when many major schools’ accept/reject results are concentrated.

2) The Nationality, Subfield, and GRE Tables Are Best Read as Mood Indicators

• There is far too much missing data to use them as a model for predicting any individual’s outcome.

• Separately, according to GradCafe forum this cycle, Duke admitted only three students and Georgetown only six, which makes this admissions season appear especially brutal.

3) A Large Share of the Outcome Cannot Be Explained by Quantitative Specs Alone

• The weak correlation between GRE/GPA and admission suggests that many forces besides quantitative factors are shaping outcomes, and in textbook terms it is more realistic to build one’s strategy around school-specific fit.
• At the same time, as I watched GradCafe admission posts from the 2026 cycle in real time, it became hard to ignore the fact that applicants with profiles such as a 330+ GRE, a 5.0+ AW score, and an Ivy League undergraduate degree were often choosing among top programs. In that sense, it still seemed clear that conventional metrics do matter after all.